HIV Generics Take Over the Antivirals Market

Generics are predicted to take over the antiviral drugs market, particularly in the instance of HIV medication, as a series of patent expiries will open opportunities for ambitious companies to seize huge revenue, according to a new report.

The new report, published by healthcare experts from GBI Research (New York, NY, USA), reported that an increase in the patient population and reforms in government policies will work together to encourage the rise of generic pharmaceutical powers.

Government policies include the need for prior authorization in order to dispense branded drugs that have generic alternatives, whereas additional incentives are available from pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) for dispensing generic drugs. These kinds of regulatory changes and financial benefits could act as significant drivers of the market during the forecast period.

While it is estimated that, in 2010, generics accounted for 18.9% of the market share in the global antivirals market, this market share is forecast to grow to reach 29.2% by 2018. This is largely due to a series of patent expiries expected to hit the antiviral market, which will act to raise the value of generic antiviral drugs to over USD 9 billion by 2018.

Generics in the HIV market in particular accounted for an estimated majority market share of 46% in the total generic antivirals market during 2010. HIV generics are expected to create a boom in the market, due to a loss of patent exclusivity for key antiviral drugs.

The generic market is currently dominated by products such as zidovudine, didanosine, stavudine, and lamivudine. However, many major patent expiries are expected during the forecast period, including Sustiva (efavirenz) and Kaletra (lopinavir + ritonavir) in 2013, Prezista (darunavir ethanolate) in 2014, and major nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) such as Trizivir (abacavir sulphate/lamivudine/zidovudine), Epzicom (lamivudine and abacavir), and Emtriva (emtricitabine) in 2016.

By 2018, billions of dollars’ worth of industry revenue will be lost from the expiration of these brand name products, and the race will be on for generics manufacturers to create new superstar drugs to make the most of this unmet need in the market. Generics within the antiviral market are forecast to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% during 2010-2018.

In December 2011, Teva (Petach Tikva, Israel) launched generic Combivir in the US market as a combination tablet containing lamivudine and zidovudine, indicated in combination with other antiretroviral agents for the treatment of HIV-1 infection. Combivir had annual sales of approximately USD 556 million in 2010, based on the annual report.

GBI Research is a provider of business intelligence reports, offering actionable data and forecasts based on the insights of key industry leaders.

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