Analysis of Virus Peptide Genomic Data Shows Lethality of Influenza A(H1N1) Increasing

An analysis of the latest peptide genomic data for the influenza A virus H1N1, once known as the swine flu, indicates that the current global outbreak of influenza A(H1N1) is increasing in its capacity for lethality.

The new sequence data on PubMed, a service of the U.S. National library of medicine, of the last two weeks of May through June 10, 2009, showed an increase in the Replikin count (a newly discovered group of peptides related to the rapid replication function in viral and other diseases) of the Replikin lethality gene in the pB1 genomic area from a mean of 2±0.2 in 2008 to a mean of 3.2±3.7 in 2009 (p < 0.001). The Replikin count of the lethality gene in 836 previous influenza A virus H1N1 isolates has remained essentially unchanged (at 2) since 1933.

These analyses were conducted by the biotech firm Replikins, Ltd. (Boston, MA, USA) using its FluForecast software. About a year ago (4/7/08), using the same software, the firm predicted the current influenza A(H1N1) outbreak, and in May 2009 (5/23/09) an increase in the Replikin count of the Replikin infectivity gene in the hemagglutinin area indicated a marked increase in infectivity of the evolving influenza A virus H1N1.

"Last month [May 2009] the H1N1 genomic data indicated some bad and some good news. While it indicated an increase in the infectivity of the H1N1 virus, its lethality appeared to remain relatively low,” noted Sam Bogoch, M.D., Ph.D., chairman of Replikins. "However, the FluForecast analysis of new data of the past few weeks, through June 10th, on 144 new specimens published on PubMed, indicate an increase in the current H1N1 outbreak's capacity for lethality. Since the software also permitted the automated analysis of all sequence data available on PubMed for all previous years, it was noted that this is the first such significant increase in the Replikin count of the H1N1 lethality gene in 76 years. This is cause for concern and an accelerated vaccine effort.”

For both the infectivity gene and the lethality gene, a significant increase in Replikin count has invariably been followed by an increase in infectivity or lethality in influenza. While both the Replikin infectivity gene and the Replikin lethality gene have been found to act independently in all common influenza strains in human, swine, and bird hosts, both of these genes have been inhibited by the Two-Punch vaccine system--designed to be concurrently directed at both genes.

The company recently announced that it has made available for testing against influenza A(H1N1) a Two-Punch PanFlu vaccine. The same vaccine system has been successfully tested against the influenza A virus H5N1 (avian flu) in chickens.

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