Mathematical Model Predicts Aggressiveness of Tumors

Scottish researchers have developed a new mathematical model that predicts how tumors grow and invade tissue.

Their findings show that the aggressiveness of cancer tumors may be determined by the tissue environment in which the tumors grow. The mathematical model developed by Dr. Sandy Anderson, of the division of mathematics at the University of Dundee (Scotland), and colleagues is similar in concept to weather forecasting but considerably more complex. The model was described in the December 1, 2006, issue of Cell.

"What this model predicts is that the more barren and harsh the tissue environment surrounding it is, the more aggressive the tumor becomes,” said Dr. Anderson.

The findings have the potential to influence the treatment of certain cancers by forcing the environment around the tumor to be considered as a contributory factor in how aggressive the cancer is. The combination of math and laboratory research to develop a model such as this one has been hailed as a "new era in cancer research” by Prof. Vito Quaranta, a leading American cancer biologist who is collaborating on the project.

Prof. Quaranta envisions a future when computer simulations like this will be used to predict a tumor's clinical progression and formulate treatment plans, in a fashion not dissimilar to how we forecast the weather now.

"Today we can know pretty well that for the next few days we're going to expect good weather or that there's a storm on the way,” said Prof. Quaranta. "That's the kind of predictive power we want to generate with our model for cancer invasion.”

"What our research shows is that the micro-environment in which the tumor grows acts like a Darwinian selective force upon how the tumor evolves,” added Dr. Anderson. "Much of current biomedical research being carried out on cancer is done in isolation of the real environment in which the tumor naturally grows, but these results show that this environment could be the crucial determining factor in the tumor's development.”

The model developed by Dr. Anderson also showed a clear relationship between the shape of a cancer tumor and how aggressive it is. Aggressive tumors tend to assume a spidery shape in the model, while more benign growths are generally more spherical in shape.

"This is important in terms of the surgical removal of tumors,” explained Dr. Anderson. "A model like this could help predict how tumors will grow in different tissue environments, i.e., different areas of the body, and what the best strategy may be to treat them. One interesting aspect of this is that if you make the environment the tumor is growing in more harsh or barren, then the more likely it is that any surviving cancer cells will be the most aggressive and hardiest ones.”

"In the future this research could help tailor treatment in a patient-specific manner, with the mathematical model being an additional weapon in the armory against cancer,” added Dr. Anderson.



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